The main problem with hard drives are that they haven’t been able to keep up with Moore’s Law. While computers have gotten faster and faster, hard drives seem to have topped out some time ago. At the same time, the total storage capacity of drives has continued to increase. What this means is that the performance/storage ratio has gotten significantly lower. It is so low, even, that it has started to put some significant strain on the average computer user.

Way back in 2000,  when drives were typically 20 or 30 Gigabytes, it wasn’t so bad to be able to access it at a typical 20-30 MB/s. This meant that you could copy an entire hard drive in about 17 minutes. Today, however, when drives are as large as 1 Terabyte (1,000 Gigabytes), and they can only be accessed not much faster, it can take significant parts of a day to copy a disk! Combined with the fact that most people use USB to attach their extra hard drives, and the whole operation takes even longer.

Corporations and users with more demanding needs try to get around this issue with RAID. Originally, RAID systems (Redundant Array of Inexpensive Disks) were designed to provide better reliability than individual hard drives (data is kept in multiple disks, so data isn’t lost if a disk breaks). Increasingly, however, RAID systems are being used to provide improved performance. The idea is that if you have two hard drives you can access both of them at the same time. Therefore, you can read or write twice as fast as if you only had one. Companies like EMC and NetApp take this principle to the extreme. What if you can read from 15 disks at once? Or from 1500?

Unfortunately disk performance doesn’t really scale in real life as well as it does in theory, and so  even high end RAID products don’t perform too much better. Two disks are not twice as fast as one. The more disks you add, the smaller the incremental benefit. Even if it did help more, adding disks ad infinitum is not a reasonable solution for home users.

So what’s the solution? It’s getting to the point where this is a real problem. It now takes me a few days to shuffle my data around when I get a new disk drive.

Newer technologies are on the horizon, but who knows when they’ll get to market. The ones you read about in the paper are still years from hitting the market as a finished product. Flash drives were promising, but in real life use, they seem to be the same or even worse performers than traditional disk drives.

If something doesn’t give soon, we are going to cross a critical threshold where some drastic design decisions need to be made on future PC’s, or the benefits of faster CPU’s and RAM will be hidden by the glacial speed of the system’s long term storage.

In and of itself, this is a good thing for everyone: the cell phone industry (they sell more phones), the carriers (people use their data plans), web sites (more hits), and of course you (its pretty cool, after all). And, the hype seems to be true: people really are using their “Real Web” browsers.

However, like Apple tried with the iPhone, some manufacturers seem to think that providing a full AJAX web environment is an alternative to allowing people to install local applications. After all, the apps already exist, and they are standardized. What’s not to like?

Unfortunately, there are a couple of holes in that logic. They are significant, although even the iPhone tried to get around them and found that it couldn’t.

First, the performance of a web-based program is significantly slower than a native one. For the iPhone, for example (the only phone so far with a full web browser), a web-based AJAX game is known to be around 100x slower than a comparable native version of the same program. That’s really slow. So slow, in fact, that almost any sort of game is pretty much out of the question.

Second, web-apps are only available where there is web access. In the States, at least, cell-based web access is pretty horrific, despite whatever recent claims the cell carriers have made. And because broadband speeds are accelerating, it makes the cell rates seem that much worse. Definitely not good enough to be taken seriously for an application. Second, you can’t run the app where you get no (or bad) cell service. Like in a subway, for example. Because the phones don’t cache the web page for very long, it means that you can’t even web apps that don’t need to contact the server are unusable if you want to pull up a game like Space Wormy.

For these reasons, phones will still need local apps for at least the foreseeable future. Hopefully, this won’t lead to the introduction of new cell phone platforms and API’s. The last thing the heavily fragmented cell phone industry needs is yet another platform. However, manufacturers can’t seem to help themselves. But that’s a whole other topic.

My wife is looking to buy a car. She is 30 years old. She likes iTunes and reads her news online instead of a newspaper. She is concerned about global warming, and about the war on terror. We’re about to have kids, which brings those concerns to the forefront. So, when we started looking around for a car, we remembered all those cool next-generation automobiles we’ve been bombarded with at auto shows and the news. And we were surprised to find that we could hardly find any. This was caused by a combination of them not having actually made it to production despite the hype, and that the dealers practically pretend that they don’t exist, even when they are sitting on the lot.

This leads to a lot of confusion for people who are actually looking to buy a car based on some of the new technology in the pipeline. Auto manufacturers talk a lot about the research and development and upcoming technologies, but it’s difficult to determine what you can actually purchase today.

Also, press releases and science articles tend to focus on how the technologies work and the impact that will have on emissions, the environment, global warming, and the butterfly population in Paraguay. Instead, even the most idealistic drivers are more concerned with how their lives will be affected with automotive technologies different from what they’re used to. The social commentary this implies is left to the reader.

Hybrid Electric (HEV)

Available: Since 1999

“Hybrids” have been available for a few years already from a number of manufacturers. In the United States, Honda made the hybrid debut with the Insight in 1999. They were joined a few years later by the Honda Civic and Toyota Prius. Today, there is a growing number of Hybrids available or shortly available from most major car manufactures.

A Hybrid is a car that has both an electric and a gas motor. The electric one assists the gas when the gas motor would otherwise be inefficient (like at low speeds). Most hybrids are simply an alternate version of a non-hybrid car, with the notable exception being the Toyota Prius. Hybrids are generally quieter than their non-hybrid counterparts. Japanese Hybrids tend to focus on getting better fuel efficiency, while American hybrids tend to focus on getting more powerful engines at the same fuel efficiency. This follows the general trend of American manufacturers to focus on trucks and SUVs, while Japanese manufacturers focus more on cars.

The biggest advantage, for both the driver and the auto manufacturer, is that Hybrid Electrics are a drop-in replacement for a conventional automobile. You drive it, you go to the gas station, you park it in your garage. The driver doesn’t need to do anything differently that they normally would with another car, and the manufacturer doesn’t have to take a risk of drivers accepting any abnormal requirements.

The trade off for this lower risk is that Hybrids are a compromise of technology and capability, tipped well against technology. There is a limit to how much electricity the hybrid can generate just from braking and excess energy from the gas motor, and this limits the efficiency of the electric motor. For this reason, hybrids can improve fuel efficiency by up to 40%, but you won’t see more than that. Also, in general, Gas-Electric hybrids tend to be either underpowered, or else give up their fuel-savings in favor of additional power to the engine.

Plug-In Hybrid Electric (PHEV)

Available: 2008, if we’re lucky

Plug-In Hybrids are an evolutionary step beyond Hybrids. The general idea is that instead of using the gas motor in the car to generate electricity (which is inefficient), instead plug it in to your power outlet overnight. Other than that basic idea, Plug-In Hybrids are very similar to regular Gas-Electric Hybrids. In fact, you could treat it the same exact way as you treat a regular Gas-Electric Hybrid. While you wouldn’t get the additional advantage of home-charging, there would be no other ill effects.

Why would you want to plug in your Hybrid? Power plants can generate electricity much more efficiently than your car engine. So, where it might take a few gallons of gas to fully charge your Hybrid’s battery (since you must drive around to get it charging), it would only cost you a few cents in electricity to charge it from your wall socket.

This tends to favor people who drive close to home. Toyota claims that their Plug-In Prius, which may debut in 2009, will be able to drive around seven miles on electricity alone. That means that your neighborhood chores will require zero gasoline, and while your commutes to work will still eat up the same miles-per-gallon as a regular Prius, those miles only start to count after you’ve driven seven.

If you are anxious to get a Plug-In Hybrid, there are people who have built their own conversion kits for both the Prius and the Civic. These will void your factory warranty, but may be the ticket if you don’t want to wait until the 2009 model year.

Electric and Series Hybrid Electric

Available: 2008 for super cars, at least 2010 for mortals?

Tesla Motors shocked the automotive industry in 2006 by announcing an all-electric sports car which could outrun a Ferrari. The Tesla Roadster has a range of nearly 250 miles before it needs to be recharged, by plugging it into an electrical outlet. At a cost of around $100,000, these aren’t for the average driver, but Tesla plans on using the technology created for the Roadster on a line of family sedans called Whitestar, which they plan on introducing as a competitor for BMW’s and Mercedes possibly as soon as the 2010 model year. If things go well, they are also planning a more affordably-priced sedan after 2012.

Ignoring the EV-1 which GM released and then recalled in the early 90′s, Chevrolet plans on releasing the much anticipated Volt. This muscle-car-esq electric vehicle drives as far as 40 miles on a single overnight charge. While this may not sound like a lot, the Volt also has an on-board gas generator, which means that you can fill up at the pump, and drive it almost like a regular car. This is known as a Series hybrid – The gasoline engine doesn’t drive the wheels like a conventional car. Instead, its only purpose is to recharge the battery while the car is on the road. This is an advantage over the Tesla Roadster, as it means that you can take the Volt on a road trip without having to worry about plugging in. GM has a bad track history with technology, and most consumers are wary about their true intentions. For example, many have alleged that the GM fuel cell program was really just a PR stunt to push off having to upgrade it’s auto technology base by pretending to be proactive. Time will tell, and while GM claims that it won’t be ready until 2012, hopeful rumors hint at 2010.

Other automakers are pursuing Series Hybrids as well. Some other potentials on the horizon besides the Volt are the Saturn Vue and Volvo ReCharge.

Fuel Cells

Available: Don’t hold your breath

Fuel cells are touted to be the next-generation car technology. Fuel cells are a replacement for batteries. Instead of charging your car with electricity, you fill it’s fuel-cell with a fuel (usually hydrogen), and the fuel-cell uses that to create electricity, without the need for a conventional motor or power generator.

A fuel cell does not describe a type of propulsion – just a power source. For example, a Hybrid Electric Vehicle might use a fuel cell instead of batteries, or a full electric vehicle might as well. While fuel cells promise to boost the efficiency of such vehicles, they are not required. That’s a good thing, because no one really knows how to make them yet.

Practically every auto maker has announced intentions of producing a fuel-cell based car. There are several prototypes, usually costing several million dollars and with significant performance problems. The technology simply isn’t there yet, and it doesn’t look like its going to be ready any time soon. Manufacturers like to use fuel-cell technology as an example of what they are developing for the future. Unfortunately (especially in the case of GM), this is really just an excuse for why they have no interesting technologies in the present.

Hydrogen

Available: Never

For a while, hydrogen-powered cars was the talk of the town. Yet, years later, there isn’t a single mass-produced hydrogen automobile. Why not?

While gasoline and even electrical outlets are commonplace throughout the United States, you would be hard-pressed to find liquid hydrogen at your local filling station. Even worse, it can be dangerous stuff. Hydrogen is explosive at room temperature, and either super-low temperatures or super-high pressure us required to keep it contained in a gas-tank. Given how much easier it is for people to switch to an electric car versus a hydrogen one, don’t expect hydrogen cars to make it to mass production any time soon. In fact, no car manufacturer has any such plans, although some government agency vehicles and public buses do run on hydrogen, and BMW has a number of prototypes which they have processionally showed off since 2001.

Which do I get?

Unfortunately, the lesson learned here is that there isn’t too much choice in the marketplace yet. If you can wait 6 months, you may be able to get a Plug-In Hybrid from Toyota. Then again, maybe not. Toyota hasn’t promised anything. If you have $100,000 to burn, you can get a super car-class Tesla Roadster that you can’t take overnight away from a power socket.

However, if you are in the market for a car today, the only technology readily available is a regular Hybrid. The good news is that they are gaining popularity, and many manufacturers are making them. My wife will be looking at models from Honda, Nissan, Toyota, and Lexus. If anyone makes an announcement that they will have a Plug-In Hybrid available in the 2009 model year before we make our purchase though, we’ll definitely hold off until that comes out.

And we’ll trade up whenever the Chevy Volt becomes available. Right before we book tickets on Virgin Galactic to the Budget Suites hotel on the moon.

]]> http://www.2robots.com/2007/11/27/where-is-my-car-20/feed/ 4 http://www.2robots.com/2007/07/02/how-does-iphone-compare-to-blackberry/ http://www.2robots.com/2007/07/02/how-does-iphone-compare-to-blackberry/#comments Mon, 02 Jul 2007 15:03:26 +0000 Daniel Eisner http://www.2robots.com/2007/07/02/how-does-iphone-compare-to-blackberry/ 500,000 other consumers in the United States, I went out and bought myself an iPhone this past weekend. While by far this is the best phone, iPod, and mobile Internet Browser I've ever used (just like Steve Jobs said), there are plenty of reviews on the web which can tell you all about that. What I am more interested in, is "Can I use it to replace my Blackberry?" Read on for the full article.]]> Along with 500,000 other consumers in the United States, I went out and bought myself an iPhone this past weekend. While by far this is the best phone, iPod, and mobile Internet Browser I’ve ever used (just like Steve Jobs said), there are plenty of reviews on the web which can tell you all about that.

What I am more interested in, is “Can I use it to replace my Blackberry?”

The main things I’m looking for is this:
1. Able to connect to Exchange
2. Push Email
3. Filtering which email folders I see from the phone
4. New emails in any folder appear on the main phone screen
5. Connecting to the corporate address book
6. Calendar Syncing

Before I start to describe my experience, I’d like to point out that this is based on the iPhone’s “1.0″ software. Apple has indicated that it will be improving its software over time. As all the limitations I mention here can be resolved by a software update, I would hope that Apple will be able to address these issues quickly, which would have a huge impact on my conclusions.

Connect to Exchange

Let’s dispel a few common myths. The iPhone can connect to Microsoft Exchange at your company. However, a lot of companies only enable the proprietary Microsoft protocol “active sync” for their Exchange servers, and don’t allow the industry standard “IMAPS” protocol. Many companies claim that this is for security reasons, but in actuality this is not true at all. IMAPS is secured through SSL just like an encrypted web page. The reality is that many corporate IT departments are too lazy to set up the IMAPS protocol, which allows both the iPhone as well as other email clients (such as Thunderbird) to connect to Exchange. My company does have IMAPS enabled, so the iPhone had no problems connecting in my case.

Push Email

Apple is currently supporting push email from some sources, such as GMail and Yahoo Mail. They do not support push email yet from Microsoft Exchange, although the rumor is that support for that may be coming in a future software update. If you don’t have push email, you can set the iPhone to check mail every 15, 30, or 60 minutes. It will also check for new mail every time you open the mail app.

Mail Folders

I think this is one of the biggest problems with the iPhone’s mail app, the the only real reason I can’t use it to replace my Blackberry. You can’t choose which mail folders show up in the iPhone from your IMAP mail account. Many people use Microsoft Outlook/Exchange at work, and use its “rules” system to automatically separate incoming emails into different organizational folders. While the iPhone can see all of these folders, only messages in the “INBOX” will trigger the iPhone to alert you of a new message. If you have Exchange set to automatically place new emails in a sub folder, the iPhone will not tell you about them.

Connecting to Corporate Address Book

The standard way of doing this is via an LDAP connection to Microsoft Exchange or other LDAP directory. While the iPhone can (and will) sync to your Outlook address book, it will not sync your company directory, and it will not let you look up names against the company directory like Windows Mobile and Blackberry will. This comes in very handy when writing emails to co-workers, or simply looking up their phone number to call them. This is an area where it would be a very useful feature for current Blackberry users to have, but it’s not strictly necessary in order to switch to the iPhone

*UPDATE*
Calander Syncing

I don’t use the calander on my phone so much, but based on some feedback to this post, here’s a bit more info on it. Currently, you can sync your iPhone calender on either Windows or Mac, but only when you have it plugged in to your computer. This is unlike email, which gets synced wirelessly. Also, this is unlike the Blackberry or Windows Mobile, both of which can sync your calendar via wireless.

Conclusion

I encourage you to read more about the iPhone from other sources. It really is an excellent phone. For business users who don’t need instant email, but can settle for every 15 minutes, and who don’t use Microsoft Exchanges “rules and filters,” switching to the iPhone will be painless. For heavier Blackberry users who rely on the company directory integration, or who work in a frontline support role where getting emails instantly is a must, you probably want to wait for at least a few software revisions in the iPhone before switching.

While the iPhone is a great device, it really is geared towards consumers at the moment, and business use has been sidelined. However, it wouldn’t take much for Apple to address the biggest issues business users face, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them all resolved by the end of the year.

You can permanently attach the Monsoon hard drive to your computer for storing extra music, video, and photos. The Monsoon is also small enough that you can carry it with you so you can share your files with your friends. While its not as small as an iPod, this version I got is 320 GB, which holds 4 times more than the largest iPod. Accessing your files will also be much faster due to the high-performance 7200 RPM disk.

There are lots of hard drives out there, and only a few things which differentiate them. The main factors which should cause you to choose one over another are the included accessories, and the build quality (of course, price helps too).

The EZQuest comes with both USB and Firewire data cables. There is a plastic stand which you can use if you want to stand your drive vertically. They include a Quick Install Guide / product catalog. We have the hard disk itself, and the power brick. Finally, they include a quick instruction card for Windows users, which we’ll talk about in a bit.

This is a pretty complete set of attachments, and there isn’t anything else they could have reasonably provided. If you plan on using firewire, you’ll notice that there is a firewire pass-through port. This means that you can connect up more drives through this one. Suprisingly, not all external drives support this, and its a nice feature.

One thing you’ll notice is that the drive is heavy for its size. The case of the Monsoon is made out of aluminum, and is much better quality than the cheaper plastic cases sold by some of their competitors. Aluminum also transmits heat much better than plastic, which means that the Monsoon doesn’t need an active fan. Consequently, the Monsoon runs much quieter than a plastic drive with a fan.

Inside the Monsoon is a standard ATA hard drive. The one I received was a Hitachi Desk Star, but you may get a different one depending on what production run you get. Because it is a standard ATA disk, you can upgrade the drive in the future. Please note, however, that opening up the case will void your warranty.

An interesting thing about the EZQuest is that it comes formatted for Macintosh computers. Most disks come formatted for either Windows or Mac, and I think its a shame that they it that way. If you have a Windows PC, you’ll have to reformat the disk so that you can use it. This doesn’t take long, but Windows will only let you format it in a Windows-specific way. If you want to be able to use your Monsoon on any computer (Linux, Windows, or Mac), you’ll need to format it as Fat32. You can find instructions to do so for OS X, or Windows.

Overall, the EZQuest Monsoon drive is a compact, high performance drive. It has good build quality, runs quietly, and can work with any sort of personal computer. If you are looking for an external hard drive, this one should be on your short list.

Here is why investors are wrong, and Red Hat really has nothing to worry about.

First of all, whether Oracle’s goals are to support their customers running Oracle on Linux, or to undermine Red Hat, the fact remains that Oracle really hasn’t been a player in the OS support business. More importantly, they don’t have a lot of experience contributing and working with the Open Source community. This is an area where personal contacts (like those built up by Red Hat since their inception) are the most important commodity.

You can go to lots of other web sites and read all about that sort of stuff, though. Want to know the real reason why Oracle won’t be stealing all of Red Hat’s business? Well, Oracle plans on taking Red Hat Enterprise Linux, stripping out all the logos (which is what Red Hat uses to enforce their licensing), and sell it as a renamed product, for less money.

But, here’s the interesting part. You can get the same exact thing for free already! The CentOS project exactly fits that description. They even provide all of Red Hat’s latest updates and security fixes, usually within hours of Red Hat releasing them. And yet, Red Hat is still around, despite the fact that this lower-cost competitor has been around for years. This shows that cost alone isn’t enough for customers to leave Red Hat, which is the critical hinge of Oracle’s strategy. Let’s not mention the not-very-well-thought-out logic that companies willing to pay for Oracle’s database software (which isn’t cheap) are not going to compromise on their Linux support just because of a few hundred dollar price savings.

Further, there are nothing but unknowns associated with switching to Oracle’s “Unbreakable” Linux. For example, they don’t support the full gamut of Red Hat products, like JBoss, GFS, or Directory Server. Companies requiring this functionality are out of luck, and would no longer have the option of even using them in the future. More importantly, given Oracle’s uncertainty with its Linux strategy in the past, who knows how long it’s going to be until they just scrap the whole product line, leaving their Linux customers who-knows-where? The smart CTO will stay away from this product offering.

So what does this news really mean? First, Larry Ellison is still unpredictable. Second, he seems to have some sort of grudge against Red Hat. And last, with their stock dropping 25% for no real reason, this is a good time to pick up some Red Hat options

Instead, I’m ready to take the big plunge. I’ve had some side business or another cooking for almost as long as I can remember working. It’s come to the point now where I think I have learned as much as I am going to learn without making a bigger commitment to it. So, I turned in my resignation at work today, and in 2 weeks I will be working for myself full time.

This is totally stressful, of course, more so because my career is really on a roller coaster ride upward. But it is also a sort of a relief. It took a huge effort not to smile as I was informing my boss of my intentions. Despite everything else, this just feels right. I expect that there are some hard financial times ahead — but no more so than I have dealt with in the past, and in fact much better because my fiancee is an accomplished and distinguished worker at her company.

I will be concentrating on two core businesses. Now that I will no longer have to worry about co-workers reading my blog, I can write much more about those here. Not today though. Today I get to rest.

In conjunction with my wedding in 2 months, this is the beginning of a new phase in my life, and I recognize that as being significant. I was looking for a change, and I think that this will be a good one. I look forward to a new beginning

Business Name Generator

Product Name Generator

Background

Upon starting my first job out of college, I learned that my first responsibility was to determine a job title for myself. I already had a good idea of what my responsibilities would be, and any title which the management didn’t particularly object to was okay.

I found that this was one of the most difficult things I have had to do in a long while. Of course, working in the computer industry, I decided that the best solution would be to write a program to do it for me. Here you go. Every time you load up this page, it will generate a new, completely random job title. Some time in the future, I may add support for different types of jobs, like cooks, investment bankers, and elevator repairmen. If you’d like to see that, drop me a line.